The benchmark Sensex and Nifty indices are likely to open marginally lower on November 20 as trends in the GIFT Nifty indicate a negative start for the broader index with a loss of 15 points.
The equity benchmarks ended lower on November 17, succumbing to selling pressure at higher levels, with the Sensex closing 188 points down at 65,795 and the Nifty 33 points to end at 19,732. The broad-based Nifty, which faced stiff resistance at 19,800-19,850, is expected to consolidate for a few days before getting into action mode, experts said.
The Nifty will have to hold the crucial support of 19,600-19,450. If the index manages to go past 19,850 decisively, it can even cross the 20,000 mark, they said.
"The hourly momentum indicator has a negative crossover which indicates that the consolidation can continue over the next few trading sessions. The Bollinger bands on the hourly charts are also contracting, indicating that there could be rangebound moves going ahead," Jatin Gedia, technical research analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas said.
The pivot point calculator indicates that the Nifty may take support at 19,682 followed by 19,649 and 19,596. On the higher side, 19,788 can be the immediate resistance followed by 19,821 and 19,874.
Stay tuned to Moneycontrol to find out what happens in the currency and equity markets today. We have collated a list of important headlines across news platforms, which could impact Indian as well as international markets.
GIFT Nifty
The GIFT Nifty indicates a marginally negative start for the broader index with a loss of 15 points. GIFT Nifty futures stood at 19,800 points after making a high of 19,852 points.
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US Markets
U.S. equity futures opened little changed on Sunday evening, heading into the shortened Thanksgiving holiday week with all of the major averages coming off of their third straight winning performance. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2 points, or less than 0.1%. S&P 500 futures were down by about 3 points, or nearly 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were lower by 34 points, or 0.2%.
The S&P 500 closed last week higher by 2.2% and the Dow added 1.9%, marking the first three-week streak for the indexes since July. The Nasdaq Composite finished the week higher by 2.4%, notching its best week since June. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury had also ended Friday at its lowest level since Sept. 20, leading some traders to expect that Treasury yields will continue to compete with equities and become more attractive to investors.
Market bulls remain enthusiastic into the year-end, however, particularly after cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data released last week calmed investors’ nerves about stubbornly high prices and provided a hopeful indication that the Federal Reserve could stop raising interest rates.
“I actually think it’s pretty likely we could see record highs before the end of the year,” Bill Baruch, founder at Blue Line Futures, told CNBC’s “Halftime Report” on Friday. “This is one of the most-healthy consolidations over the last couple of days.”
European Markets
European markets closed higher Friday after a reversal of momentum in the previous session. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed around 1% higher, with all sectors and major bourses in positive territory. The gains were led by financial services and mining stocks, which closed up by 1.7% and 1.8% respectively. Italian insurance and asset management company Generali is the only major corporate due to report results on Friday.
U.K. retail sales figures reflected a 2.7% year-on-year drop, with clothing and household purchases being hit the hardest, according to the Office of National Statistics. Compared to the previous month, retail sales declined by 0.3%, hitting the lowest level since early 2021 and coming in far below expectations.
A final reading of euro zone inflation showed a sharp slowdown, with October’s year on year inflation reading coming in at 2.9% compared to 4.3% in September, according to EU statistics office Eurostat.
Asian Markets
Asia-Pacific markets started the week higher after most major bourses ended lower in the previous session, while investors watched for changes to China’s benchmark lending rates. The People’s Bank of China’s one-year loan prime rate — the peg for most household and corporate loans in China — is currently at 3.45%. The five-year benchmark loan rate — the peg for most mortgages — stands at 4.2%.
Hong Kong stocks led declines in Asia-Pacific on Friday, as shares of Alibaba plunged after the Chinese e-commerce giant said it would not proceed with the full spinoff of its cloud group.
Futures for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index stood at 17,728, pointing to a higher open compared to the HSI’s close of 17,454.19. Japan’s markets extended Friday’s gains, with the Nikkei 225 up by 0.12% and the Topix climbing 0.15%. The country will be watching for its October inflation figures on Friday. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.13%, while the small-cap Kosdaq saw a larger gain of 0.35%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 edged 0.18% higher.
Australia win sixth World Cup title after Head hundred sinks India
Around 93,000 predominantly Indian fans sat mostly in deathly silence as the home team, who had won 10 matches in a row to make the final, succumbed to their first loss of the tournament in the all-important summit clash.
TCS, Infy lead as 7 of India Inc Top 10 add Rs 1.50 lakh cr to market value
The combined market valuation of seven of the top 10 valued firms climbed Rs 1,50,679.28 crore last week, with IT majors Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Infosys emerging as the biggest gainers, amid an overall optimistic trend in equities.
Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 890.05 points or 1.37 percent. Reliance Industries, TCS, HDFC Bank, Infosys, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, and Bharti Airtel were the gainers, while ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, and Bajaj Finance faced erosion from their market valuation. The valuation of TCS jumped Rs 62,148.99 crore to Rs 12,81,637.63 crore, emerging as the biggest gainer from the top 10 pack.
FPIs turn buyers; invest Rs 1,433 crore in equities till mid-November
After sustained selling in the last two and a half months, FPIs bought Indian equities worth Rs 1,433 crore thus far in November, mainly due to the decline in US treasury bond yields and crude oil prices. Foreign Portfolios Investors (FPIs) were net sellers till November 15. However, they reversed the selling trend by infusing money during November 16-17, data with the depositories showed.
"The ongoing festive season in India has been seen as a contributing factor to the renewed interest of FPIs in the Indian market. Alongside this, a decrease in US Treasury bond yields and a decline in crude oil prices alleviated some of the pressures that prompted the sell-off earlier," Himanshu Srivastava, Associate Director – Manager Research, Morningstar Investment Adviser India, said. "Some intermittent corrections in the markets could have also provided buying opportunities in a few pockets," Srivastava added.
VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said the resilience of the market and strong up moves on favourable days have forced a rethinking in FPI strategy. That’s why they turned buyers on the 15th and 16th of this month after sustained selling in the first two weeks of November.
Market experts now believe that the US Fed is done with rate hikes and will slowly start discounting rate cuts in 2024. If the declining trend in US inflation persists, the Federal Reserve may cut rates by mid-2024. This can facilitate FPI inflows into emerging markets like India, he added.
Six companies to hit D-Street this week to raise Rs 7,400 crore from public
The bustling primary market is set to simmer in the week beginning November 20 with six companies ready to mop up around Rs 7,400 crore. The IPOs next week include Tata Technologies, the first Tata Group firm to go public almost 20 years, and Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency, the first government offering since LIC in May 2022.
Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency IPO: IREDA, the Mini Ratna government enterprise, will be the first among five initial public offerings (IPOs) in the mainboard segment, opening for subscription on November 21 and closing on November 23. The price band for the offer has been fixed at Rs 30-32 per share.
Ousted OpenAI CEO Altman discusses possible return, mulls new AI venture
Sam Altman, the just ousted CEO of OpenAI, is discussing a possible return to the company behind the ChatGPT bot even as he considers launching a new artificial intelligence (AI) venture, a person briefed on the matter said on November 18.
A day after the board fired him in a surprise move that rocked the tech world, Altman was talking with OpenAI executives about improving the company’s governance structure while he discussed with some core OpenAI researchers and others loyal to Altman how they could start a new AI company, the person said.
The possibilities of a return or a restart for Altman, seen by many as the face of generative AI, are in flux, said the source, who asked not to be named because the source was not authorized to speak on behalf of the parties involved. OpenAI and Altman did not reply to requests for comment.
Oil Prices
Oil prices rose on Friday, a day after sinking 5% to a four month-low on growing worries about burgeoning non-OPEC supply and cooling demand. The West Texas Intermediate contract for December rose $2.21, or 3.03%, to $75.11 per barrel, while the Brent contract for January rose 3.2%, or $2.49, to $79.91 a barrel.
Both benchmarks have lost around a sixth of their value over the last four weeks, and prices are on track for their fourth straight week of losses. “Oil prices are down slightly this year despite demand exceeding our optimistic expectations,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note. “Non-core OPEC supply has been much stronger than expected, partly offset by OPEC cuts.”
Dollar Index
The Dollar index traded 0.51 percent lower in futures at 103.82, whereas the value of one dollar hovered near Rs 83.29.
Gold Prices
Gold prices held steady on Friday but registered a big weekly gain as the dollar and Treasury yields weakened amid growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve is done with its monetary policy tightening. Spot gold was steady at $1,980.13 after rising to a two-week high earlier in the session. Prices were up about 2.3% this week. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.1% at $1,984.70.
“There is a strong potential for gold to continue to rally a bit more but prices have to move a bit lower, before the next leg-up in the rally and perhaps test the $2,000 level at the same time,” said Everett Millman, chief market analyst at Gainesville Coins.
“Data that came out this week cemented the fact that the Fed is likely done with rate hikes, helping gold. Gold’s move will depend on incoming data and market response to the data.”
Stock under F&O ban on NSE
The NSE has added RBL Bank to its F&O ban list for November 20, while retaining Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals, Delta Corp, Hindustan Copper, India Cements, Manappuram Finance, MCX India, and Zee Entertainment Enterprises in the list. SAIL has been removed from the F&O ban. Securities banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.
FIIs and DIIs
Foreign institutional investors net sold shares worth Rs 477.76 crore, while domestic institutional investors offloaded Rs 565.48 crore worth of stocks on November 17, provisional data from the National Stock Exchange showed.
With inputs from Reuters and other agencies.
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